Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/xlm/inflation by MrNasdog.
Stellar has no protocol inflation since 2019. The only source of new circulating supply is the Stellar Development Foundation deploying from its 16B-XLM ecosystem reserve. Framework reading: +2.07% net over the last 90 days — entirely SDF-driven.
The verdict, in one paragraph
For the 90-day window ending June 10 2026, the framework reads XLM at +2.07% net inflation — all of it from observed Stellar Development Foundation deploys against an empty buy ledger. The aggregator monitor reads +2.14%, within the framework's 0.5-percentage-point tolerance. Stellar in mid-2026 is, structurally, a Foundation-released chain: zero protocol mint, zero buyback, the entire supply trajectory dictated by SDF's discretionary deployment cadence.
Sell pressure: where new XLM comes from
Stellar's protocol-level inflation was eliminated by community vote in November 2019 (CAP-26). The Stellar Development Foundation simultaneously executed a one-time burn of ~55B XLM, reducing total supply from over 100B down to the current 50B fixed cap. Since then, no new XLM has been minted by the network. Sell #1 (protocol inflation) is structurally zero forever.
Sell #2 (vesting unlocks) is zero too — no team or investor allocations on time-locked schedules; everything was resolved at the 2019 supply reduction. The flow that matters is Sell #3 (Foundation + unscheduled unlocks): SDF holds approximately 16B XLM under a published "gradual market entry" mandate, and the foundation deploys those tokens to ecosystem partners, the Stellar Community Fund grants programme, and developer subsidies. Over the trailing 90 days, observed SDF deployments total roughly 700M XLM — the entire source of new circulating supply for the chain. Sell #4 (bankruptcy) is zero.
Buy pressure: where it goes
All four buy-side rows are zero on XLM. There's no protocol-revenue buyback (Buy #1), no fee burn (Buy #2 — Stellar's transaction fees accumulate to network reserves rather than being destroyed), no SDF accumulation (Buy #3 — SDF is structurally a net seller via Sell #3, never an accumulator), and no long-term lock programme (Buy #4 — no native staking, no veXLM-style escrow). The chain has zero structural absorption of new supply, which means the SDF deploy rate becomes the entire inflation signal.
Foundation and overhang
The Stellar Development Foundation holds ~16B XLM, roughly 32% of the 50B fixed cap and approximately half of all non-circulating XLM. The foundation publishes a quarterly transparency report showing wallet balances and deploys against the Foundation Mandate. SDF's historical deploy cadence has averaged 4-8% of its custody balance per year (~640M to ~1.3B XLM annually); the recent 90-day pace of ~700M is in line with that mandate. If SDF were to accelerate beyond the published mandate, the framework reading would step up immediately — that's the single watch line. The foundation has historically been disciplined about communicating cadence changes in advance.
How XLM compares to other Foundation-controlled payment networks
XLM sits in a small category: a payment-network token where the foundation is the structural net seller and there's no protocol mint. The closest direct analogue is Ripple's XRP, which similarly has no protocol inflation and a foundation-controlled deployment mechanism — though Ripple's monthly escrow release is mechanically scheduled at 1B XRP gross while XLM's SDF deploys are discretionary. Both chains share the structural feature that supply pressure is dictated entirely by the foundation rather than network economics.
Against productive-work chains — Ethereum's ETH, Solana's SOL — XLM is structurally simpler. There's no validator emission feedback loop, no staking yield, no fee burn. The chain's supply trajectory is a single function of SDF's deploy decisions over the next decade until the foundation custody is exhausted. At current cadence, that's roughly a 15-20 year horizon to full distribution.
What to watch in the next 90 days
The single most important signal is the SDF quarterly transparency report, which discloses custody balances and deploy categories. If the next report shows accelerated deploys beyond the current 700M / 90D pace, the framework reading steps up. Second, watch for Stellar Community Fund grant cycle announcements — these are the largest individual deploys and they cluster around the cycle boundaries. Third, any governance discussion about reintroducing protocol-level inflation (extremely unlikely after the 2019 vote, but worth monitoring) would change the structural picture overnight.
Summary
XLM is a 50B-fixed-cap payment-network token with zero protocol inflation and zero structural buy-side absorption. The entire supply trajectory is driven by SDF's discretionary deploys from a 16B-XLM ecosystem reserve. Framework reads +2.07% net; aggregator agrees. The structural risk is SDF cadence acceleration; the structural ceiling is the 50B cap; the structural floor is SDF discipline in execution. Until the foundation custody depletes (~15-20 years at current pace) or the mandate changes, this reading is stable.
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Stellar (XLM), Metric 1 — Inflation. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Updated June 10, 2026.
