EUR/USD is the world's most traded currency pair. In mid-2026, it's sitting around 1.093 — up from May lows of 1.065. But where's it headed next?
I run a free currency converter tool and I've been tracking this pair closely. Here's my breakdown.
What's Driving EUR/USD Right Now
1. ECB vs Fed rate gap
The ECB held rates at its June meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed is pricing in two rate cuts by December. Rate differentials are the #1 driver of this pair — when the Fed cuts faster than the ECB, the dollar weakens and EUR/USD rises.
2. US inflation trajectory
Inflation has been cooling but unevenly. Every CPI print moves the needle. If inflation stays sticky above 2.5%, the Fed delays cuts → dollar strengthens → EUR/USD drops.
3. European political stability
Defense spending increases across Europe are fiscal stimulus in disguise. Combined with potential eurozone fiscal integration, this puts upward pressure on the euro.
4. Trade policy uncertainty
Tariff threats create risk-off flows into the dollar (EUR/USD down). Trade deal optimism reverses that (EUR/USD up). This swing factor is hard to predict but impossible to ignore.
Monthly Range Forecast (2026)
| Month | Low | High | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 1.062 | 1.095 | Actual |
| Feb | 1.068 | 1.102 | Actual |
| Mar | 1.045 | 1.090 | Actual |
| Apr | 1.052 | 1.085 | Actual |
| May | 1.065 | 1.092 | Actual |
| Jun | 1.076 | 1.098 | Actual |
| Jul | 1.083 | 1.105 | Forecast |
| Aug | 1.078 | 1.100 | Forecast |
| Sep | 1.072 | 1.095 | Forecast |
| Oct | 1.075 | 1.110 | Forecast |
| Nov | 1.080 | 1.115 | Forecast |
| Dec | 1.085 | 1.120 | Forecast |
The general trend is modest euro appreciation — from ~1.09 now toward 1.10-1.12 by year-end, assuming the Fed delivers those cuts.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support: 1.065 (May low), 1.045 (March low — year's floor so far)
- Resistance: 1.098–1.100 (June ceiling), 1.120 (year-end target)
- A break above 1.100 opens the door to 1.12. A drop below 1.065 puts 1.045 back in play.
Try It Live
I built a converter that shows live EUR/USD rates — no ads, no signup:
It pulls data from Yahoo Finance and updates on every request, so you're always seeing the actual market rate, not something cached from yesterday.
This is a condensed version. Full analysis with historical data and detailed central bank policy breakdown: EUR to USD Forecast 2026
I publish forex updates regularly. Built with Next.js on Vercel. Open source on GitHub.
