Background
I spent four months tracking a specific late-game pattern in soccer. The question: how often does a tight scoreline actually change in the final three minutes?
Methodology
Dataset: StatsBomb open data (1,085 matches, 41 competitions, 2014-2023)
Filter criteria applied at the 87th minute:
- Total goals in match: 2 or fewer
- Goal margin: 1 or fewer (covers 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1)
Results
79.3% of qualifying matches ended with the same scoreline they had at 87'.
| Score at 87 min | Held to FT | Sample size |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 82.3% | 486 matches |
| 1-0 | 79.7% | 334 matches |
| 0-1 | 79.0% | 297 matches |
| 1-1 | 76.6% | 372 matches |
Key Observations
- Teams protecting leads are effective: 79-80% hold rate across both 1-0 and 0-1
- Draws are the least stable: 1-1 at 76.6% — both teams still have incentive to push
- Scoreless draws are surprisingly sticky: 82.3% hold at 0-0, even when both teams could still win
Calibration Check
My original 148-match manual sample gave 81.8%. Scaling to 1,085 brought it to 79.3%. This is exactly the regression-to-mean pattern you would expect when moving from a small to large sample.
Full report with additional breakdowns by competition and team strength: The 87th-Minute Soccer Edge
