The dollar’s resilience is telling traders that a US-Iran peace headline is not the same thing as an oil-market resolution. ING’s Chris Turner says a possible deal has softened the US Dollar, but DXY is still holding up because the inflation channel remains open until crude moves freely through the Strait of Hormuz, according to FXStreet.
That is the core tension. Diplomacy has cooled nerves, but it hasn’t erased the market’s energy-risk premium. Turner’s framing is blunt: unless oil starts shipping freely through Hormuz soon, ING’s house view is that energy markets could move “close to a tipping point in July.” That keeps the dollar supported even as peace talk takes some heat out of the trade.
The dollar refuses to price a clean US-Iran peace dividend
The market is not treating a potential US-Iran deal as a finished event. It is treating it as a possible relief valve.
Turner notes that investors have reacted with “predictable optimism” to signs that another US-Iran peace deal may be near. Oil’s recent softness has encouraged the idea that traders in crude may be anticipating progress. The proposed structure, as described by ING, centers on a new 60-day deal in which the Strait of Hormuz would be opened and Iran would be able to sell oil.
That should be dollar-negative at the margin. Less geopolitical stress usually cuts demand for defensive positioning. Softer energy prices can also reduce inflation anxiety, which can reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to stay tight.
But the dollar has not cracked. Turner says DXY has held up “quite well” despite both a hawkish ECB and a potential ceasefire in the Gulf. ING expects continued support near 99.50.
“DXY has been holding up quite well despite a hawkish ECB and a potential ceasefire in the Gulf. We expect it to find continued support near 99.50.”
XOOMAR analysis: that is not a vote of confidence in a smooth diplomatic outcome. It is a vote of caution. A weaker dollar needs more than negotiation headlines. It needs proof that energy supply losses are reversing and inflation risk is receding.
DXY, oil, and Hormuz are locked in the same trade
Turner’s argument rests on a simple market chain: Hormuz disruption, higher crude risk, stickier inflation, firmer US rates, stronger dollar.
ING says the “legacy issue” of the crisis has been the “substantial loss of energy supplies” and the inflation shock sent around the world. That matters because the dollar is not just reacting to geopolitics. It is reacting to the Fed implications of geopolitics.
A small dollar pullback on peace headlines does not mean the trend has turned. Short-dated US rates have come lower, according to Turner, but markets still price 20bp of Fed tightening this year. ING does not see that being unwound before next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where Turner says a new-look statement and new forecasts could support the dollar.
| Market input | Dollar implication if risk rises | Dollar implication if risk fades |
|---|---|---|
| Oil flows through Hormuz | Supply fear keeps inflation risk alive | Normal flows weaken the inflation premium |
| Fed pricing | Tightening expectations support DXY | Less tightening pressure can weigh on DXY |
| Peace talks | Fragile talks limit dollar selling | Credible deal gives bears more room |
| DXY technical area | ING sees support near 99.50 | Break depends on lower oil and softer Fed risk |
CNN’s reporting adds why the market is not ready to declare victory. It said the US and Iran had reached a tentative agreement to turn a ceasefire into a longer settlement, but also reported that President Donald Trump had not signed off and that it was unclear whether Iran’s supreme leader had approved it. CNN also said Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported the text “has not yet been finalized or made definitive.”
That distinction matters. An unsigned framework can move prices. Tankers moving freely can change the inflation math.
Oil supply fears keep the dollar bid even as peace talks cool nerves
The dollar can soften on diplomacy and still retain support. Those are not contradictory moves.
Peace headlines reduce immediate fear. Physical supply risk keeps the macro trade alive. Turner’s point is that the market should be careful about expecting much lower oil prices from current levels unless shipping through Hormuz normalizes very soon.
XOOMAR analysis: FX traders are separating headline risk from supply risk. Headline risk can fade quickly. Supply risk lasts until the market sees practical evidence: open routes, stable flows, clearer export conditions, and less anxiety around energy availability.
That is why related market coverage has stayed focused on the same corridor. XOOMAR has tracked Hormuz-linked risk in Iran Claims Strait of Hormuz Ship Hits, Oil Flinches, while the dollar side of the inflation trade also connects with Hot PPI Sends US Dollar Index Toward 100 as Fear Bites. Those links matter because this is one trade seen through two screens: crude and DXY.
The strongest counterpoint is obvious. If a deal is finalized, Hormuz reopens, and Iranian oil sales resume without disruption, the inflation premium should shrink. That would make it harder for the dollar to hold gains on energy fear alone.
But Turner’s view still holds because the Fed is sitting in the middle. With the market still pricing tightening this year, traders have little reason to dump dollars aggressively before the FOMC.
Traders, central banks, oil buyers, and Tehran are not trading the same headline
For FX traders, peace talk is a short-term dollar negative. It lowers demand for defensive positioning and makes crowded long-dollar trades less comfortable. But DXY near ING’s 99.50 support area shows that traders are not willing to treat the deal as settled.
For the Federal Reserve, the issue is inflation risk. Turner says the oil shock is arriving alongside “stable to positive US jobs numbers,” leaving investors wary about how the Fed will react. That is the core reason the FOMC matters next week. A statement or forecast set that keeps tightening risk alive can offset some of the dollar drag from diplomacy.
For oil buyers, the practical question is not whether negotiators sound optimistic. It is whether oil is actually moving. CNN reported that the memorandum would include language lifting constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, allowing unrestricted navigation by vessels, and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports. It also said the deal would start a 60-day negotiation period on Iran’s nuclear program.
For Washington and Tehran, the stakes are political as well as financial. Times Now reported that Trump said he had told negotiators “not to rush into a deal” and that any agreement must be “solid and lasting.” That language cuts against the idea of an immediate market clean-up trade.
“Both sides must take their time and get it right,” Trump said, according to Times Now.
XOOMAR analysis: the dollar is behaving as if the market believes a deal is possible, but not yet bankable.
Historical shortcuts are less useful than the current Fed-oil link
The cleanest read here does not require importing old crisis comparisons. Turner’s note gives enough to explain the current dollar setup.
The key mechanism is current and specific: energy supply losses have created an inflation shock, US jobs data are stable to positive, short-dated US rates have moved lower but still price 20bp of tightening, and the next FOMC could support the dollar through updated language and forecasts.
That combination matters more than generic geopolitical memory. The dollar does not need a fresh shock to hold support. It only needs the market to believe the Fed cannot safely dismiss the energy shock.
The counterpoint is that a confirmed deal could quickly weaken this logic. If oil flows freely and energy prices keep softening, the Fed-risk channel would lose force. DXY support near 99.50 would then look less like a base and more like a level waiting to be tested.
But Turner is not arguing that the dollar must surge. He is arguing against a deep sell-off. That is a narrower, stronger claim. The market does not need to love the dollar. It only needs enough inflation uncertainty to avoid selling it hard.
A firmer DXY keeps pressure on oil-sensitive balance sheets
A supported dollar has practical consequences. For investors, it can restrain parts of the commodity trade, weigh on high-beta currencies, and complicate exposure to assets sensitive to US rates. For companies, the combination of firm oil and firm dollar is harder than either move alone.
XOOMAR analysis: firms with fuel exposure, dollar debt, or imported inputs face the toughest version of this setup if energy prices stop falling while DXY stays bid. Consumers would feel that through fuel, freight, and travel-sensitive costs if the oil shock persists. The supplied sources do not give consumer price projections, so the right lens is risk monitoring, not prediction.
The market signals to track are specific:
- Hormuz access: Are oil flows normalizing in practice, not just in statements?
- Fed pricing: Does the market keep pricing tightening after the FOMC?
- DXY support: Does the index continue to hold near 99.50?
- Oil behavior: Do prices stay soft, or does Turner’s July “tipping point” risk gain traction?
If those indicators move in the same direction, the dollar trade becomes clearer. If they split, DXY may chop rather than trend.
Three dollar paths depend on proof, not promises
A credible US-Iran deal with visible oil-flow normalization would likely weaken the dollar. The energy risk premium would fade, inflation fears would cool, and traders would have a cleaner reason to reduce dollar exposure.
A drawn-out negotiation keeps DXY supported. That is closest to ING’s current framing. Peace remains possible, but not complete. The Fed remains relevant. The dollar avoids a deep sell-off.
A breakdown in diplomacy, or renewed shipping stress near Hormuz, would strengthen the dollar’s support case. Oil risk would harden inflation expectations, and traders would likely become even more reluctant to unwind Fed-tightening bets before clearer evidence arrives.
The test is simple. The dollar won’t lose meaningful support until markets see both diplomatic progress and physical proof that energy supply risk has eased. Right now, ING’s message is that one without the other is not enough.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
The Bottom Line
- The dollar remains supported because traders are waiting for proof that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are secure.
- Energy-market risk keeps inflation concerns alive, which can influence Federal Reserve expectations.
- ING sees DXY finding continued support near 99.50 despite peace-deal optimism.
Originally published on XOOMAR. For more news and analysis, visit XOOMAR.
