Extension Mechanics
CBSA published the extension notice for UBC 2026 IN on January 7, 2025, pushing the preliminary determination deadline out by another 45 days. Normal SIMA timeline is 90 days from initiation to preliminary, but Section 39(1)(a) of the Special Import Measures Act allows the Agency to tack on up to 45 more when the case involves product-scope novelty or a high respondent count. Both apply here: unarmoured building cables span multiple HS subheadings depending on voltage rating and conductor material, and the Chinese electrical wire industry ships through dozens of exporters and trading companies.
The new preliminary date sits around mid-February 2025. If CBSA finds a reasonable indication of dumping or subsidization at that stage, provisional duties go live immediately for all subject imports. The final determination follows 90 days later, usually with margin adjustments after the Canada International Trade Tribunal weighs injury.
What Counts as Subject Goods
The product description in the initiation covered unarmoured building cables with copper or aluminum conductors, rated up to 1000 volts, primarily classifiable under HS 8544.49.00.20 (other insulated electric conductors, for a voltage not exceeding 1000 V) and sometimes 8544.42 (fitted with connectors). Jacketed Romex-style residential wire, THHN/THWN singles for commercial panel work, and multi-conductor control cable all fall inside the scope if they originate in or export from China.
Exclusions are narrow: armoured cable (BX/MC), automotive harnesses, and telecom/data cable sit outside. If your CAD filing history shows regular entries under 8544.49 with Chinese supplier codes, you're in the zone. Pull a six-month transaction report from your CARM Client Portal and filter by country of origin CN and those HS codes.
Provisional Duty Math
Once the preliminary determination publishes, CBSA will post estimated dumping margins and countervailing duty rates by exporter. Cooperative respondents who filed full questionnaire responses typically get individual margins. Everyone else lands in the residual basket, which is almost always higher because CBSA uses adverse inference or best-information-available.
Provisional duties are cash-only. Your Release Prior to Payment bond won't cover them. The amount gets calculated on transaction value at time of release, applied per CAD line, and invoiced on the K84 monthly statement just like regular duties. If the final margin comes in lower after the tribunal wraps, you can apply for a refund under Section 76.01, but that process runs six to nine months and requires your broker to file an amendment with original entry evidence and purchase invoices.
If the margin is steep and your import volume is meaningful, the cash-flow hit shows up fast. A 30% provisional dumping duty on CAD 500,000 of monthly cable imports is CAD 150,000 per month that doesn't flow through your normal RPP bond cycle. Plan liquidity now, or talk to your CFO about whether you want to pre-switch suppliers before the hammer drops.
Release Holds and Compliance Flags
CBSA typically doesn't hold cargo at the preliminary stage unless there's a compliance red flag, but the Agency does start monitoring closely. Expect origin verifications if you suddenly pivot your commercial invoice country-of-origin field from CN to a third country after the provisional date. A Chinese exporter shipping through a Vietnamese trading company with minimal processing still triggers a transshipment review, and if CBSA decides the true origin is China, you're on the hook for the provisional duty retroactive to release date plus an AMPS penalty for incorrect country-of-origin declaration.
Same risk if you reclassify aggressively to dodge the subject HS codes. Moving from 8544.49 to 8544.42 just by adding a terminal lug doesn't work if the Agency decides the connector is incidental and the product remains unarmoured building cable. That's a D-memo D11-4-2 classification dispute that can sit in CBSA reconsideration for months while duties and interest accrue.
If you're using a Non-Resident Importer structure with a U.S. parent as importer-of-record, make sure your compliance setup captures the China-origin flag. NRI penalty exposure runs 25% of the evaded duty amount, and provisional SIMA duties count as evaded if you misreport origin or classification to avoid them.
Switching Suppliers Mid-Investigation
Some importers will bail to non-subject suppliers before the preliminary determination. Taiwan, South Korea, and Mexico all manufacture equivalent cable. Qualification time depends on your install specs and CSA/UL cert requirements, but the margin clock is ticking. If you're sitting on a three-month indent lead time from China and the prelim drops in six weeks, your next container is already subject.
Be careful with stock sitting in a Montreal sufferance warehouse pre-release. If you deferred the CAD filing to manage cash and the goods arrived before the provisional date but you release after, CBSA applies provisional duty at the release date, not the arrival or purchase date. We've seen importers try to argue transaction-date protection, but the liability trigger is the accounting date on the CAD, not the bill of lading. If you're holding cable inventory at a Montreal sufferance facility waiting for a customer PO, pay attention to the provisional timeline and release before the determination publishes if you want to dodge the duty.
What Happens at Final
Assuming CBSA makes an affirmative preliminary finding, the case moves to the Canadian International Trade Tribunal for injury analysis. CITT has 120 days from the preliminary to decide whether the dumped or subsidized imports caused or threaten material injury to the Canadian cable manufacturing industry. If the Tribunal says no injury, the case dies and provisional duties get refunded. If the Tribunal says yes, final duties lock in for five years, margins get recalculated based on the full record, and every CAD on Chinese unarmoured building cable pays the final rate going forward.
You can track the investigation docket and posted exhibits on the CBSA SIMA registry. Counsel for domestic producers and importers will file briefs, and the Tribunal holds a public hearing. If your annual cable spend is big enough to justify it, you can intervene as an interested party, but that's a legal spend most mid-market importers skip unless the margin is punitive.
Broker Filing Adjustments
Once provisional duties go live, your broker needs to add the SIMA duty line to every CAD covering subject goods. That's a separate line item under the customs duty field, not rolled into GST base. The CARM portal auto-applies it if the HS code and origin combination match the published determination, but if your product sits on the edge of the scope definition, the broker has to make a call. Conservative filing says pay it and dispute later. Aggressive filing says classify out or argue exclusion up front, but that invites a verification request and possible exam.
If you're running high shipment velocity, the K84 statement gets messy fast when provisional duties layer on top of MFN rates, CUSMA preference claims, and GST. Make sure your freight AP team knows the new line is coming so they don't flag it as a broker error and delay payment.
We update HS classification guidance when SIMA scope language creates new edge cases. The UBC 2026 case is still at preliminary, so the product description might tighten after final. If your cable imports mix armoured and unarmoured in the same shipment, split the commercial invoice lines now so the CAD can reflect separate treatment.
The 135-day extension just bought everyone another six weeks to audit supplier origin, run alternate-source qualification, and model the cash hit if provisional margins land high. If you haven't pulled your China-origin cable entry history yet, do it this week. Get in touch if you want a second set of eyes on the HS scope question or the NRI penalty exposure.
Originally published at https://www.canflow-global.com/en/insights/cbsa-extends-ubc-2026-sima-investigation-timeline-to-135-days/.
