Silver bounced where bulls needed it to bounce, but the chart still says sellers own the near-term tape.
Silver's bounce near $63.50 looks more like a warning than a reversal
Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounded toward $65.00 in European trading on Wednesday after finding bids near $63.45, described as a more than two-month low, according to FXStreet. That bounce matters. It shows buyers have not disappeared.
It doesn't prove the selloff is over.
The gap between those two ideas is the whole trade. A metal can recover from an intraday low and still remain trapped in a bearish structure. FXStreet’s technical read says XAG/USD is still well below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), with the EMA cited at $72.89 and later rounded to $72.90 as the first meaningful resistance. That distance is not a minor technical wrinkle. It tells traders the rebound is happening under a falling ceiling.
The macro backdrop is no cleaner. FXStreet links the renewed pressure to escalating US-Iran tensions, while framing the market impact through oil prices, inflation expectations, and the Fed-rate channel rather than through a clean safe-haven bid for silver.
XOOMAR analysis: The contradiction is sharp. Geopolitical stress can support precious metals, but this specific shock is also pushing the inflation and Fed-rate channel back into focus. For silver, that second channel is currently doing the heavier damage.
The key XAG/USD levels traders are watching after the drop to $63.45
The immediate line is now $63.45 to $63.50. FXStreet frames the low at $63.45 and the article title points to temporary support near $63.50. If XAG/USD cannot defend that area, the next verified downside level in the source is the March 23 low at $61.01.
That matters because the bounce to $65.00 is not a full technical repair. It is only the first test of whether buyers can hold a rebound after a sharp fall.
The source does not identify $62.00 or $60.00 as formal support levels, so they should not be treated as sourced chart markers here. The cleaner map is simpler:
| Level | Role in the current setup |
|---|---|
| $63.45 to $63.50 | Immediate support zone after Wednesday’s bounce |
| $65.00 | Near-term recovery area reached in European trade |
| $72.89 to $72.90 | 20-day EMA resistance, the first major level bulls need to reclaim |
| $61.01 | March 23 low, cited by FXStreet as the next downside target if recovery fails |
Momentum still leans bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is cited at 32.09, near oversold territory. That can mean the decline is stretched, but FXStreet’s read is more cautious: downside pressure persists even if the pace of the decline could soon moderate.
For traders building a process around levels rather than headlines, this is exactly where a disciplined chart routine matters. XOOMAR’s guide to building a technical analysis workflow is relevant here because the key question is not whether silver bounced. It’s whether the bounce changes the structure. So far, it hasn’t.
Silver's data problem: strong long-term demand hasn't stopped short-term selling
Silver still has a powerful long-term demand story. The related Silver Price Forecast snapshot says industrial applications account for over 50% of annual silver demand, citing the Silver Institute, and lists electronics, solar panels, and medical devices among major uses. It also says the silver market is valued at approximately $1.2 trillion annually, according to the Silver Institute.
Yet none of that stopped XAG/USD from sliding to roughly $63.45.
That is the point. Long-term demand can support a thesis, but short-term price action is being driven by macro pressure and technical damage. FXStreet says escalating US-Iran tensions are unfavorable for silver because they have prompted oil prices, which could keep global inflation expectations higher and eventually reinforce hawkish Federal Reserve bets. Higher Fed rates hurt non-yielding assets such as silver.
The next scheduled test is direct: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, due at 12:30 GMT. FXStreet says headline CPI and core CPI are expected at 4.2% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively.
The before-and-after setup is blunt:
- Before the drop: Silver could lean on the industrial-demand narrative and precious-metals appeal.
- After the drop: Traders are staring at $63.45, RSI 32.09, and a price still far below the 20-day EMA.
- Next catalyst: CPI either eases the Fed-rate pressure or strengthens it.
XOOMAR analysis: A softer inflation print would not automatically erase the bearish chart. A hotter print would make the chart’s weakness harder for bulls to dismiss.
Bullion desks, industrial users, and retail traders don't see this pullback the same way
Short-term traders will likely treat $65.00 as the first test, not the finish line. That is analysis, not a sourced flow claim. The source only confirms that silver rebounded near that level and remains below the key 20-day EMA.
Longer-term precious-metals investors may read the same move differently because silver’s industrial role remains intact in the supplied context. The related Silver Price Forecast material identifies electronics and solar energy as important demand channels and says silver has one of the highest electric conductivity levels among metals, more than copper and gold. That helps explain why silver can trade on both macro fear and industrial expectations.
Those drivers are now colliding. A trader focused on CPI, Fed expectations, the US Dollar, and yields is not looking at the same problem as an industrial user thinking about physical input costs. FXStreet also notes that XAG/USD is priced in dollars, and the related context says a stronger US Dollar tends to keep silver prices contained.
Retail traders face a different issue: signal quality. A bounce from support can look attractive, but a market below the 20-day EMA with RSI near oversold is not automatically a buy. For readers comparing trading tools or signal-based setups, XOOMAR’s warning on no-code trading platforms and bad strategy selection is useful context. The source’s own technical section was written with help from an AI tool, which makes human verification even more important.
The pullback shows why silver needs macro help, not just a demand story
FXStreet’s Silver FAQs say silver often follows gold because both have safe-haven characteristics, though silver’s safe-haven appeal is “to a lesser extent than Gold's.” The same section also says silver can rise when rates are lower, while a stronger dollar tends to cap it.
That combination explains the current tension. Silver has not lost its identity as a precious metal or industrial commodity. It has lost near-term momentum.
The market now needs more than a bounce from $63.45. It needs a reason to believe the rate and dollar pressure is easing. Without that, the chart remains vulnerable even if the long-term demand narrative still sounds persuasive.
XOOMAR analysis: The practical lesson is that silver rallies work best when the macro setup and demand story point in the same direction. Right now, the demand story is not enough to overpower the Fed-sensitive pressure described by FXStreet.
For silver investors and hedgers, $63.50 now controls the risk conversation
The risk line is no longer abstract. It sits near $63.50.
If XAG/USD holds that zone and stabilizes above $65.00, the market can start testing whether the rebound has more depth. If it loses $63.45, FXStreet’s cited downside marker is $61.01, the March 23 low.
That creates different choices for different participants:
- Short-term traders: The burden of proof sits with bulls until silver reclaims stronger resistance.
- Longer-term investors: The dip may look interesting, but the chart has not confirmed a durable base.
- Hedgers: Volatility around inflation data and geopolitics argues for defined plans rather than reactive decisions.
- Macro traders: CPI, Fed expectations, and the US Dollar remain central to the next move.
This is not a blind dip-buying setup. It is a confirmation setup. Silver needs to prove that $63.45 to $63.50 was a durable floor, not just a pause on the way to the next support test.
Silver price forecast: downside risk stays alive unless XAG/USD reclaims momentum above $65.00
The base case is cautious: silver remains vulnerable while it trades below the 20-day EMA near $72.90 and struggles to build above $65.00. The bounce from $63.45 reduces immediate downside pressure, but it does not reverse the bearish near-term bias described by FXStreet.
A bullish alternative needs help from macro data. Softer US inflation, weaker hawkish Fed expectations, or a weaker dollar would give XAG/USD a better chance to stabilize and work back toward higher resistance.
A bearish scenario is cleaner. If CPI reinforces inflation pressure, and Fed-rate expectations stay hawkish, silver could lose the $63.45 to $63.50 zone and turn toward $61.01.
The next decisive move likely comes from macro data, not silver-specific demand headlines. Confirmation for the bearish thesis would be a failed recovery above $65.00 followed by a break of $63.45. The clearest challenge to it would be sustained trade above $65.00, then a move that starts closing the gap toward the 20-day EMA.
Disclaimer: This XOOMAR analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, legal, tax, or professional advice. It does not provide buy, sell, hold, price-target, portfolio, or personalized recommendations. Verify information independently and consult qualified professionals before making decisions.
The Bottom Line
- Silver’s rebound near $63.50 shows buyers are active, but the broader technical trend remains bearish.
- The $63.45-$63.50 support zone is critical because a break could expose the March 23 low at $61.01.
- US-Iran tensions are feeding inflation and Fed-rate concerns, which may continue pressuring silver despite geopolitical uncertainty.
Originally published on XOOMAR. For more news and analysis, visit XOOMAR.
