Preventing Ransomware Damages with Off-Site Backup

This paper presents an approach to preventing ransomware damages through in-operation off-site backup systems designed to achieve a false-negative miss-detection rate of 10^-8.

The Ransomware Problem

Ransomware attacks keep getting more sophisticated:

Encryption Speed: Modern ransomware can encrypt systems in minutes
Detection Evasion: Advanced ransomware mimics normal I/O patterns
Backup Targeting: Attackers specifically go after backup systems
Cost: Global damages expected to exceed $265 billion by 2031

The standard response (periodic backups, endpoint detection) is not enough when attackers are specifically designing around those defenses.

Our Approach

The system combines three ideas:

1. In-Operation Continuous Backup

Unlike traditional backup schedules:

Continuous, real-time backup of critical files
No backup windows where data is vulnerable
Minimal performance impact (<5% overhead)

2. Behavioral Anomaly Detection

Multi-layer detection system:

Entropy Analysis: Detect sudden increases in file randomness
I/O Pattern Monitoring: Identify suspicious access patterns
File Type Transitions: Track unexpected file extension changes
Temporal Correlations: Recognize rapid sequential modifications

3. 10^-8 False Negative Rate

Achieving this extremely low miss rate requires:

Ensemble Methods:

Multiple independent detection signals
Bayesian fusion of evidence
Adaptive threshold adjustment

Statistical Guarantees:

Formal analysis of detection probability
Monte Carlo validation
Real-world attack simulation

System Architecture

User System -> Monitoring Agent -> Backup Engine -> Off-Site Storage
                     |
              Anomaly Detector
                     |
           (If attack detected)
                     |
              Isolation & Recovery