Originally published on averin.com
Trade type: SHORT
Status: COVERED (closed) May 28, 2026
| Price | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Short entry | $12.00 | May 23, 2026 (Fri) |
| Cover | $11.86 | May 28, 2026 (Wed) |
| P&L | +$0.14 / +1.17% | 3 trading days |
Why I Shorted SBSW
Sibanye-Stillwater is the world's largest platinum group metal (PGM) producer. The near-term setup favoured the short side for a specific reason: palladium spot prices had been weakening steadily through May as automotive demand data from China — the marginal buyer — continued to disappoint. SBSW's revenue is highly correlated to palladium pricing, and the stock had not fully priced in the ongoing PGM weakness.
Additionally, the South African rand was under modest depreciation pressure, which typically compresses SBSW's dollar-denominated margins. The stock was holding at $12 on momentum from a prior bounce, not on fresh fundamental support.
Short entry: $12.00 on May 23, 2026. Catalyst thesis: PGM price weakness + rand pressure + no near-term production catalyst.
Trade Path
| Date | SBSW | Move |
|---|---|---|
| May 23 — Short entry | $12.00 | — |
| May 27 — Close | $12.16 | +$0.16 against me (adverse) |
| May 28 — Cover | $11.86 | −$0.30 / −2.47% on the day |
May 27 moved briefly against the short: SBSW edged up to $12.16 in the post-holiday session as gold prices provided a temporary lift to the entire mining sector. I held — the palladium weakness thesis was unchanged.
May 28 confirmed it. SBSW fell 2.47% on the day, breaking back below my short entry. The PGM sector traded as a group to the downside.
Why I Covered Today
At $11.86, the short has delivered the move I was positioned for. SBSW is a high-volatility commodity name that can spike 4–5% on any South African headline or palladium price tick. Taking the +1.17% gain and closing before a potential squeeze is the correct risk management here.
Covered at $11.86. Net gain on short: +$0.14 per share, +1.17% in three trading days.
