Understanding the history of commerce means anticipating how AI will transform it. This historical perspective sheds light on the shifts we're experiencing today in AI-native e-commerce. The “Back to School” commercial event now represents the world’s second-largest retail market, with revenue of $172.3 billion in 2024 and a projection of $230.1 billion by 2030.
The Historical Roots of a Commercial Phenomenon
The origins of “Back to School” are closely linked to compulsory education laws in the United States, progressively adopted through 1918. This societal transformation created a massive and recurring need for school supplies, giving birth to what would become one of the year’s most important commercial phenomena.
The first commercial document using the term “Back-to-School” dates back to 1944, with Montgomery Ward’s revolutionary advertising campaign. This now-defunct company was the first to identify and capitalize on this critical consumption period.
The Digital Transformation of a Tradition
The Emergence of E-commerce (1990-2000)
The e-commerce revolution began in the mid-1990s with the emergence of Amazon (1994) and eBay (1995). These platforms progressively transformed shopping habits, particularly during high-demand periods like “Back to School”.
Key Technological Innovations
Several technological advances accelerated this transformation:
- 1996: Introduction of SSL encryption, securing online transactions
- 2005: Launch of Amazon Prime, revolutionizing fast delivery
- 2007: iPhone democratizes m-commerce
- 2010-2020: Development of AI and personalization
Marketing Strategies and Evolution of Approaches
Digital Retail Giants
Amazon revolutionized the approach by integrating “Back to School” with Prime Day, creating a commercial event of unprecedented scale. This strategy generated revenue of $12.7 billion during Prime Day 2024.
Walmart adopted a remarkable inclusive approach, with shopping hours adapted for people with disabilities and innovative educational partnerships.
Target focuses on a precise segmentation strategy with campaigns targeted by age group and grade level, using sophisticated behavioral data.
Economic Impact and Seasonal Employment
2024 Market Breakdown
The US “Back to School” market represents $125.4 billion in 2024, broken down as follows:
- K-12 Segment: $38.8 billion
- Higher Education: $86.6 billion
Seasonal Job Creation
This period generates massive job creation:
- Amazon: 250,000 seasonal employees
- UPS: 125,000+ employees for logistics
- Target: 100,000 additional employees
- Walmart: 40,000 temporary employees
Regional Specificities and Cultural Adaptation
European Market
In Europe, the concept adapts to different educational systems:
- France: Focus on “rentrée scolaire” in September
- Germany: Emphasis on “Einschulung” and specialized supplies
- United Kingdom: Integration with mandatory school uniforms
Emerging Markets
Asian markets show exceptional growth:
- China: 15% annual growth in the segment
- India: Development of educational e-commerce
- Brazil: Adaptation to regional school calendars
Emerging Technologies and Market Future
Artificial Intelligence and Personalization
AI is transforming the shopping experience with:
- Personalized recommendations based on age and grade level
- Educational chatbots to guide purchases
- Needs prediction based on school curricula
Augmented and Virtual Reality
Recent technological innovations include:
- Virtual try-on for clothing and accessories
- 3D visualization of school supplies
- Immersive experiences in-store
Sustainability and Responsible Consumption
A strong emerging trend toward:
- Eco-responsible and sustainable products
- School supply recycling programs
- Circular economy in education
Future Perspectives: Toward 230 Billion in 2030
Growth Factors
Several elements fuel this projected growth:
- Accelerated Digitalization: Post-COVID, digital education has become essential
- Demographics: Growth of global school population
- Premiumization: Upscaling of educational products
- Technological Innovation: Integration of AI and IoT
Challenges to Address
The sector faces several challenges:
- Inflation of raw material costs
- Increased competition between platforms
- Growing environmental expectations
- Evolution of educational models
Conclusion
The evolution of “Back to School” perfectly illustrates the transformation of modern commerce. From a local retail tradition, this phenomenon has become a sophisticated global e-commerce ecosystem, integrating emerging technologies, omnichannel strategies, and sustainable concerns.
This transformation continues to redefine not only our consumption habits but also our approach to education and school preparation. With a growth projection toward $230 billion by 2030, “Back to School” remains a laboratory for commercial and technological innovation.
This article was originally published on LinkedIn on July 17, 2025.
