The growth story everyone sees
Port of Montreal released updated terminal capacity plans in late 2024, and the headlines are predictable: modernization, automation, increased throughput targets. On paper, the port sees itself handling more container volume by 2026. But that story leaves out the real constraint—the stuff that actually moves containers off the dock and into a warehouse or across the 401 corridor.
The port's infrastructure upgrades are real. Port of Montreal has been investing in terminal equipment and berth improvements for three years, and those projects are coming online. That matters for vessel scheduling and initial unload speed. But vessel speed isn't the bottleneck most shippers hit. The bottleneck is what happens after the crane puts the container down.
Where the forecast gets specific
Drayage capacity around Montreal is growing slower than port throughput. We see this in real time on our dock. Q4 2024 spot rates for drays from Lachine or Dorval to warehouse facilities in the greater Montreal region ranged between CAD 2,200 and CAD 2,600 per unit depending on direction and timing—that's up roughly 15-18% from Q4 2023 rates, and it's not because fuel jumped. It's because there aren't enough tractors available during peak season. Port of Montreal moves through Lachine, Dorval, and nearby rail yards, and the drayage operator pool hasn't scaled to match the terminal's potential.
That gap is forecast to persist through 2025 and into early 2026. Transport Canada hasn't issued updated hours-of-service guidance, so driver availability remains capped by existing regulations. New trucking firms are entering the Montreal market, but their equipment takes time to stage, and insurance and bonding add 8-12 weeks before a new operator is dock-certified. The port can move 30% more cargo, but the tractor fleet takes 18-24 months to scale.
What that means for warehouse ops is simple: drayage windows stay tight. We book dock appointments 48-72 hours in advance during peak season. Cross-dock cutoffs don't slip—they get stricter. An importer expecting to land a container at port Monday morning and have it dock-to-stock by Wednesday at FENGYE LOGISTICS is in for a surprise if their drayage broker can't lock a tractor slot before port confirmation. The bottleneck isn't the warehouse. It's the mile between the terminal and the warehouse.
Sufferance warehouse demand is outpacing supply
This is where the forecast becomes concrete for 3PL operators. Montreal has three major CBSA-authorized sufferance warehouse facilities, and combined capacity is something like 180,000-220,000 sq ft of temperature-controlled and regular storage. The port region itself can absorb maybe 50,000-70,000 more sq ft before geography makes it inefficient. Bonded warehouse operators are reporting utilization rates of 78-85% in peak season (Q4, early Q1), and that's after they've added weekend receiving and extended dock hours.
The forecast for new warehouse construction in the greater Montreal region through 2026 is modest. One new 90,000 sq ft facility is slated for Mirabel in late 2025, marketed as a cross-dock operation for auto parts and food distribution. But that location is 50+ km from Port of Montreal, which adds drayage time and cost. For import-side container dwell and holding, distance is a problem. The real growth in warehouse utilization is happening at existing facilities, not in greenfield square footage.
We've added a second shift to our receiving dock at FENGYE LOGISTICS to absorb the inbound flow. It's working, but it costs. Weekend dock labor, second-shift supervision, extended equipment rental for forklifts and racks—that's building into our operating cost structure. Most of our importer clients accept it because the alternative is port-side demurrage or detention at a less efficient facility. But the math changes if drayage capacity doesn't improve alongside port throughput.
Rail connectivity is the wildcard
CN and CP both have rail yards feeding the Port of Montreal region. CN's Lachine yard and CP's Dorval facility handle inland container traffic and rail-depo transfers. The consensus forecast through 2026 is that rail dwell times will improve modestly (1-2 days average improvement) as both carriers finish equipment modernization projects. But neither carrier has announced significant capacity additions.
That matters because a lot of importers use rail-to-truck drayage models for inland distribution. A container that sits at a CP rail yard for 6-8 days waiting for a trucker slot is a container not turning over in a warehouse. The rail forecast suggests those dwell times compress slightly, which should free up some warehouse floor space by 2026. But it's not a game-changer. It's a 5-10% efficiency gain, not a 30% capacity unlock.
The risk in the rail forecast is labor. Both CN and CP have faced staffing constraints and labor negotiations have been contentious. If either carrier scales back operating hours or reduces yard staffing to control costs, the modest dwell improvement evaporates. We're tracking this closely because it hits our cross-dock SLA if a container arrives via rail at 19:00 on a Friday and the yard can't release it until Monday morning.
Customs clearance remains the wild variable
Port throughput, drayage, warehouse space, and rail all have forecasts. Customs clearance doesn't, because it depends on CBSA examination rates, and those are driven by compliance history and commodity type, not logistics infrastructure. The current CBSA risk-targeting system flags somewhere between 12-18% of containers for physical examination at Port of Montreal. That percentage hasn't moved materially in 18 months, but it's not baked into any forecast because SIMA duties, origin verification campaigns, or country-specific compliance sweeps can spike it overnight.
From the warehouse side, every examination hold is a dock appointment delay. A container flagged for exam on Wednesday doesn't clear until Thursday or Friday, and the drayage window shifts. If the drayage operator has already moved their tractor to another job, the container sits in port-side storage until a slot opens. That's detention fees plus demurrage. The port growth forecast doesn't account for this because it's not a logistics variable—it's a customs variable.
What we tell importers is straightforward: if your CAD filing and source documentation are clean, you're not significantly exposed to examination dwell. But if your compliance history shows penalties or slow duty payment, expect delays and plan warehouse capacity accordingly. The growth forecast assumes normal customs processing. Reality has variance.
What the numbers tell us by 2026
Port of Montreal is forecast to move 2.8-3.2 million TEU annually by 2026, up from roughly 2.6 million in 2023 (baseline estimates from port authority strategic planning). But warehouse capacity in the region is growing at 5-8% per year, not the 10-12% it would need to keep pace with port growth. Drayage capacity is growing even slower, constrained by equipment replacement cycles and driver availability. The result is an asymmetric growth model: the port gets faster, but the ecosystem around it stays tight.
For importers, that means drayage costs stay elevated through 2025 and into 2026. Warehouse rates stay firm because utilization is high. Cross-dock and consolidation services become more valuable because there's less tolerance for containers sitting in bonded storage waiting for a truck. And customs clearance delays have a bigger impact because there's nowhere to absorb the delay except in drayage cost or warehouse holding.
For 3PL operators, it means the imbalance creates opportunity and constraint in equal measure. Facilities positioned for cross-dock and consolidation win. Facilities designed for long-term storage see margin pressure because utilization is high but pricing can't follow. Operators with drayage relationships or in-house trucking capacity have a structural advantage. The ones dependent on spot-market carriers are exposed.
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The forecast matters because it's not even
If Port of Montreal capacity were growing in sync with drayage capacity and warehouse capacity, the forecast would be a simple story: more throughput, distributed efficiency, stable costs. But they're not in sync. The port is growing faster than the supporting infrastructure. That gap is forecast to persist through 2026. It creates dwell, cost, and operational friction for everyone depending on Montreal import flows.
We're already seeing importers pre-position inventory further upstream—staging goods at US border facilities or inland distribution centers to absorb Montreal congestion risk. Others are diversifying through Halifax or Saint John. It's not panic, but it's prudent risk management. The Montreal logistics hub is growing, but not evenly, and not fast enough to eliminate the friction that makes growth valuable in the first place.
If your supply chain depends on Montreal-region import throughput, the forecast tells you to lock in drayage relationships now, confirm warehouse capacity 60-90 days out, and treat customs clearance timing as a variable, not a given. The port will handle more volume by 2026. The stuff around the port will be tighter. Plan for that reality, not the headline. Learn more about Fengye Logistics. Learn more about FENGYE LOGISTICS warehousing services.
Originally published at https://www.fywarehouse.com/news/montreal-logistics-hub-growth-forecast-what-the-numbers-say-0f36390b.
