Crypto price predictions are their own genre. Most “where TON is heading” articles are written by content marketers, not analysts. Still, readers have a real question: where is the signal in this noise. This piece is an attempt to structure 2026 TON forecasts, dissect the methodology, and avoid the hype.
Disclaimer. This is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell TON. It’s an analytical breakdown of what different sources are saying. All numbers in crypto price forecasts have wide error bars.
The starting point (May 2026)
Per CoinGecko on May 9, 2026:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| TON price | $2.55 |
| Market cap | $6.83B |
| 24h volume | $884M |
| Circulating supply | 2.68B TON |
| Total supply | 5.18B TON |
| ATH | $8.25 (June 15, 2024) |
| ATL | $0.5194 (September 21, 2021) |
| 30-day change | +106% |
| 90-day change | +91% |
| 1-year change | +21% |
| Rank | #20 by market cap |
Important: TON trades 69% below its ATH. That’s a typical altcoin pattern after the 2024 cycle. Any forecast must account for the fact that we’re talking about returning to or surpassing the previous peak, not setting absolute new records from here.
The 2026 forecast map
I’ve gathered publicly available end-of-2026 forecasts into one snapshot. Sources: CoinCodex, Changelly, DigitalCoinPrice, Coinbase, CoinDataFlow, Cryptopolitan, 99bitcoins.
| Source | Type | TON forecast end-of-2026 |
|---|---|---|
| CoinDataFlow | Technical | $1.64 |
| TradingBeasts (via 99bitcoins) | Backtest | ~$2.36 |
| Recent trend (multiple aggregators) | Linear | $1.68-3.82 |
| CoinCodex | ML | ~$3-5 (varies) |
| Changelly | ML | ~$5-8 |
| Bitget Forecast | Auto | ~$5-10 |
| 99bitcoins (analyst John Crypto) | Expert | $5.80-6.90 |
| DigitalCoinPrice | Auto | ~$11.24 (average) |
| Cryptomus | Auto | up to $7-12 (bull case) |
The spread is nearly 7x from low to high. That’s not unusual for crypto forecasts; Bitcoin 2026 forecasts also diverge by 3-4x. TON has less history and a thinner book, so models scatter more.
What’s inside the models
Methodologies fall into four classes:
1. Linear and technical extrapolation
The CoinDataFlow approach. Take price history, run it through simple models (moving average, ARIMA), output a number. Strong point — repeatability. Weak point — blind to fundamentals: the model doesn’t “know” about Telegram airdrops or USDT integration.
2. Multifactor ML
CoinCodex, Changelly, DigitalCoinPrice use ML models with input factors — BTC correlation, volumes, on-chain metrics. Quality higher, transparency lower: you see a number but not which factor drives the forecast most.
3. Expert
Analysts like John Crypto or Bitwise publish ranges based on DCF-style models with adoption assumptions. The most “interpretable” forecasts, but also the most subjective.
4. Sentiment-based
Typical case — Cryptopolitan and 99bitcoins. Prices anchored to expected events: listings, T1 partnerships, ETF chatter, Telegram MAU growth. Useful for narrative awareness, not for math models.
!What does NOT count as a forecast
“TON could reach $100 by 2030” in a YouTube thumbnail isn’t a forecast. It’s lead generation. A real forecast contains inputs, methodology and a confidence interval. Without those — ignore the number.
Bull factors (per analysts)
What gets cited in positive forecasts:
- Telegram MAU of 1B — a potential conversion base. Even 5-10% activation gives 50-100M new TON users.
- Stablecoin liquidity. USDT-jetton has crossed $1B market cap. A leading indicator for TVL.
- Institutional interest. Several large custodian providers added TON in 2025.
- Telegram x xAI — a $300M deal with potential revenue-sharing on Grok. Not a direct TON driver, but reinforces the “Telegram as platform” narrative.
- Deflationary mechanics. Part of fees is burned, new issuance is low (0.9% per year).
Bear factors
What gets cited in conservative forecasts:
- DAU drop after airdrop waves. From December 2024 (880k DAU) to December 2025 (170-200k DAU) — a 4-5x decline.
- Regulatory risks. Crypto sits in a grey zone in many jurisdictions; in the US, TON was tested by the SEC back in 2020 (the Gram precedent).
- Concentration. Most infrastructure is tied to Telegram. Any messenger problem hits TON.
- Competition. Solana, Base, Sui are growing aggressively in adjacent niches.
- Thin order-book depth. TON’s market still moves easily on large orders.
Scenario models
A simple three-scenario breakdown for 2026:
| Scenario | TON price | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Bear | $1.5-2.2 | Global risk-off, regulatory pressure, DAU below 100k |
| Base | $3-5 | Steady stablecoin growth, TVL to $0.7-1.0B, DAU 200-500k |
| Bull | $7-12 | Return to ATH+, MAU-to-on-chain conversion, institutional inflows |
This isn’t “my forecast” — it’s a structured summary of what shows up in public analyst write-ups. The base scenario is the most cited.
Long-term forecasts (2030+)
Even more dispersion here. Crypto.News, Cryptomus, Bitget publish $20-50 by 2030 in bull cases and $5-12 in baseline. On a 5+ year horizon any forecast is more allegory than prediction.
iMain takeaway
Don’t build portfolio decisions on aggregated auto-forecasts. Use them as one of 5-10 inputs: on-chain fundamentals, BTC correlation, TVL trajectory, regulation, user-base width. A price forecast without a model is fortune-telling.
Macro factors to watch
Additional inputs that move the TON narrative for an international observer:
- USD strength and risk-on/risk-off. Crypto remains a risk asset; TON tracks broader sentiment.
- Telegram regulatory exposure. Any major-market action against the messenger reflects on TON.
- MiCA implementation in the EU. USDT delisting on European CEXes affects TON-DeFi liquidity flows.
Further reading
- TON vs BTC and ETH correlation — historical analysis — TON’s relationship to the broader market.
- How to read TON on-chain metrics — for building your own model.
- TON DeFi metrics — fundamental indicators.
- Complete TON guide — ecosystem context.
