Sui (SUI): No Inflation, But 60% of Supply Still Unvesting

Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/sui/full by MrNasdog.

This is a MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Sui Network (SUI) on Metric 1 (sell pressure) and Metric 2 (buy pressure). Narrative (Metric 3) is covered separately. The short version: SUI has no protocol inflation and a clean fixed-supply design, but ~60% of its total supply is still locked under scheduled vesting through ~2030 — the same structural shape as Ondo, just spread over a smoother glide path.

The setup

Sui is a layer-1 proof-of-stake smart-contract platform written in Move, built by Mysten Labs and stewarded by the Sui Foundation. Mainnet launched April 12, 2023 (genesis epoch 0 from the official RPC). Total supply is fixed at 10B SUI, verified directly from the Sui mainnet RPC (suix_getTotalSupply).

Live numbers, origin-first from the Sui mainnet RPC (fullnode.mainnet.sui.io):

• Total supply: 10,000,000,000 SUI (fixed cap, verified on-chain via suix_getTotalSupply returning 10000000000000000000 MIST = 10B SUI)
• Current epoch: 1137 (~24h epochs from genesis)
• Total staked: ~7.42B SUI (~74.2% of total — read from suix_getLatestSuiSystemState)
• Active validators: 128
• Circulating supply (CoinGecko cross-check): ~4.005B SUI (~40.1%)
• Still-locked (vesting): ~5.99B SUI (~59.9% of total)
• Price ~$1.065 → market cap ~$4.27B · FDV ~$10.65B

Initial allocation (per Sui Foundation tokenomics docs): Community Reserve, Early Contributors (Mysten Labs + team), Investors, App Testers + Burnt Finance Migration. Most non-community allocations have published vesting schedules with multi-year cliffs and linear vests stretching out toward ~2030.

The sell ledger

What the design predictably puts on the market.

Inflation: zero. Sui's 10B cap is enforced at the protocol level. The RPC confirms getTotalSupply() returns exactly 10B. New SUI is never minted on a schedule.

Vesting is THE structural sell line. With 5.99B still locked and the vest stretching out toward ~2030, the implied monthly release is in the range of 50–100M SUI/month depending on cliff structure — that's a lot. (A precise breakdown requires the published Sui Foundation schedule; this article uses a midpoint estimate.) At today's circulating ~4.0B, an additional ~5.99B coming over ~4 years means circulating supply will roughly 2.5× before the vest is complete. Tag A because the schedule is published and trackable.

Tag B is Mysten Labs + Sui Foundation already-unlocked portions — coins that have vested out of #2 but haven't moved into broad circulation. Plus discretionary Foundation deployments. De-duped against #2 (anything still on the published vest schedule belongs to #2, not #3).

Bankruptcy estate: zero.

The buy ledger

What the design predictably takes off the market.

Sui has no structural buyback or burn. The much-discussed storage fund is a deflationary-adjacent mechanism, but functionally it's a rebate system for past storage costs, not a burn. Gas demand exists (every Sui transaction requires SUI for gas), but the reference gas price is low (100 MIST = 1e-7 SUI) and on-chain volume produces modest daily demand.

Net position

• Sell, Tag A: ~1.5B+ SUI/year (rough estimate of 5.99B vest over 4 years)
• Buy, Tag A: minimal (gas demand only)
• Net structural dilution to circulating supply: substantial — circulating will roughly double in the next 24 months under the published vest schedule.

This is the same structural shape as Ondo and TAO: scheduled supply up, structural buy minimal. Different mechanics (vesting cliffs vs. cliff days vs. block emission), same direction.

Compared to the rest of our coverage:

• BNB: supply ↓ from burns → favorable
• HYPE: AF buyback > vest → favorable
• UNI / SKY: clean today, lever-dependent → neutral / mixed
• NEAR: ~2.5%/yr inflation → unfavorable
• TAO: ~27%/yr inflation, halving 10mo → unfavorable now, programmed improvement
• SUI: ~38% supply unvesting over 4 years (~9%/yr of total) → unfavorable
• ONDO: ~17%/yr cliffs → most unfavorable

What flips the buy ledger

A revenue-funded buyback would need governance to introduce one — none on the roadmap publicly. The natural buyer for SUI is application demand on the chain; if a flagship Sui app (e.g., a stablecoin issuer, a large DeFi protocol, a viral consumer app) generates significant fee volume and the protocol routes some fees to a buyback, the picture changes. No such mechanism exists today.

What to watch

1. Sui Foundation tokenomics page — monthly unlock disclosures; track cliff dates.
2. Mysten Labs + Sui Foundation wallet activity — large transfers visible on SuiVision / SuiScan.
3. Storage fund balance over time — read via RPC; tracks deflationary-adjacent mechanics.
4. On-chain gas burn (if any reform is introduced) — would move source #2 of the buy ledger from 0 to non-zero.

MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of SUI, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Numbers as of May 2026.

Data note: Total supply (10B) read directly from the Sui mainnet RPC via suix_getTotalSupply on 0x2::sui::SUI. Current epoch + total staked + validator count from suix_getLatestSuiSystemState. Genesis date inferred from epoch math (1137 epochs × 24h from epoch start) → ~April 12, 2023. Circulating supply cross-checked via CoinGecko. Vesting schedule details from the Sui Foundation tokenomics page; precise per-month unlock pace requires the published cliff schedule.