Originally published at mrnasdog.com/research/ondo/full by MrNasdog.
This is a MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of Ondo Finance (ONDO) on Metric 1 (sell pressure) and Metric 2 (buy pressure). Narrative (Metric 3) is covered separately. The short version: ONDO unlocks ~1.7–1.9B tokens every January through 2029 — with nothing in the protocol buying them back.
The setup
ONDO is a fixed 10B-supply governance token — no inflation. ~4.87B (48.7%) circulates; ~5.13B is locked and releases on a fixed schedule through 2029. The protocol it governs is genuinely large — ~$3.5B+ in tokenized real-world assets, ~$66M/year in management fees — but, crucially, that business and the token are financially disconnected: no protocol revenue reaches ONDO. That single fact is what hollows out the buy ledger below.
The sell ledger
What the design predictably puts on the market.
| # | Source | Tag | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Protocol inflation | — | 0 |
| 2 | Vesting unlocks — annual January cliffs, predetermined | Tag A | ~1.7–1.9B / yr |
| 3 | Ecosystem / Foundation overhang (Gnosis Safe) | Tag B | 5.21B pool |
| 4 | Locked-stake unlocks (no native staking) | — | n/a |
| 5 | Bankruptcy estate | — | 0 |
| 6 | Concentrated holders — Pantera ~320M, others | Tag B / C | discretionary |
The standout is how clean the main entry is. Unlike most tokens, where the team unlock is a fuzzy, semi-discretionary drip, ONDO's big unlock is a published, predetermined cliff — you know the date (each January) and the rough size (~17–19% of supply). The Jan 18 2026 cliff released ~1.94B (~$774M) and lifted circulating ~60%. The next is Jan 18, 2027. Between cliffs, scheduled selling is ~0.
The buy ledger
What the design predictably takes off the market.
| # | Source | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Revenue-backed buyback | 0 |
| 2 | Burn mechanism | 0 |
| 3 | Locked allocations (delayed sell, not buying) | — |
| 4 | Protocol-level demand sink (governance only) | ~0 |
Every line is zero. Ondo earns real money — ~$66M/year — but it flows to the business, not the token. There is no contract buying ONDO, nothing burning it, and no requirement to hold it. The buy ledger is empty by design.
Net position
Put the ledgers together and the imbalance is the whole thesis: a token that adds ~1.7–1.9B of supply a year with zero structural offset, marching from 48.7% to 100% unlocked by 2029. Price has to come entirely from discretionary demand outrunning a scheduled supply tide — the framework gives no structural credit for that.
The only entry that could flip the buy ledger
Ondo's DAO has floated a fee switch — routing part of that ~$66M/yr to ONDO via buybacks or staking rewards — possibly in H2 2026. That is the single line item that would move the buy ledger off zero. It is governance-dependent and not live, so today it scores nothing; but it is the one thing worth watching, because it would convert real revenue into the first genuine Tag-A buy pressure ONDO has ever had.
What to watch
- The Jan 18, 2027 cliff and how the Foundation handles it.
- Any Tally governance proposal on a fee switch or buyback.
- Movement out of the Foundation Gnosis Safe or large investor wallets (on-chain, watchable).
MrNasdog Pressure Framework analysis of ONDO, Metrics 1 & 2. Data + explanation only. Not financial advice. Numbers as of May 2026. By MrNasdog (Zhiyi Song).
Data note: supply, schedule, and the buyback / burn zeros are origin-first (Ondo Foundation docs + the public unlock schedule). The Tag-B balances (Foundation Safe, top holders) are visible on-chain but not yet pulled — ONDO has no official token data API, so they need an Etherscan / RPC read.
